Paxton Gains as Texas Senate Race Tightens
James Talarico’s lead in the Texas Senate race has shrunk to two points when undecided voters make up their minds, and that small shift carries a lot of weight this close to Election Day.
A new BIG DATA POLL released today shows the Democrat ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by 4.3 points among registered voters, 43.6 percent to 39.3 percent. Among likely voters, Talarico leads 44.6 percent to 41.6 percent. Those margins look solid until you ask the undecideds to lean. Then Talarico’s edge drops to 2.6 points among registered voters and 1.9 points among likely voters.
The poll surveyed 793 registered voters and 698 likely voters in Texas from September 24 to 26. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means the race sits well inside the noise. It also means both campaigns are spending every hour chasing voters who could still go either way.
What catches my eye is not the headline number but the fine print about enthusiasm. Among voters who say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting, Paxton leads 48.2 percent to 47.5 percent. Among those most certain to vote, he leads by a hair, 46.7 percent to 46.5 percent. Undecided likely voters break toward Paxton. That pattern matters when turnout decides everything.
I have watched Texas statewide races for a long time. Democrats have not won one since 1994. So even a small lead for Talarico feels unusual. It also feels fragile. A two-point race with a month to go is not a safe lead. It is a coin flip dressed up as a trend.
Why the race is tightening
Paxton has been moderating his message as national attention has focused on Texas. Senate Republicans have poured money into the race. The Senate Leadership Fund recently increased its ad buy for Paxton to $100 million. That kind of spending changes the air in a state where Republicans usually do not have to fight this hard.
Talarico still holds advantages in several groups. He leads among Latino voters, Black voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, and women. He also holds a roughly three-to-one edge among 2024 defectors, 15.6 percent to 4.9 percent. But Paxton leads among white voters over 55 and among men. He also leads among voters 55 and older by a wide margin in some polls.
The issues driving voters this year feel different from past cycles. Affordability tops many lists. When asked who would do a better job tackling the affordability crisis, 49 percent said Talarico and 42 percent said Paxton in a late September poll. Data centers and artificial intelligence also matter in ways they never did before. Voters worry about power, water, and utility costs as big tech builds out across the state. On those issues, 45 percent said Talarico would do better and 40 percent said Paxton.
I keep coming back to the undecideds. They are not a monolith. Some are waiting for a reason to pick a side. Others are quietly committed but do not want to say it yet. The fact that they lean toward Paxton when pushed suggests his ground game and late advertising may be working. It also suggests Talarico’s coalition needs to turn out at high levels to hold his lead.
Prediction markets still favor Talarico. Kalshi puts him at 60 percent and Polymarket at 61 percent. The RealClearPolling average shows him up about three points. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up. All of that says the same thing in different languages. This race is close enough that any late shift could flip it.
What does this mean for ordinary people watching from their kitchens? It means the next month will feel loud. Ads will pile up. Mailers will fill mailboxes. Friends will argue at dinner. And every vote will matter more than it has in most Texas races for a long time.
I do not feel certain about the outcome. I feel certain about the stakes. A two-point race in Texas is not just a political story. It is a sign that the state is changing under our feet. Whether that change sticks depends on who shows up on November 3.
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